(1) To examine the interaction of donor age with ischemic time and their effect on survival and (2) to define ranges of ischemic time associated with differences in survival.
Methods
The United Network for Organ Sharing provided de-identified patient-level data. The study population included 33,640 recipients undergoing heart transplantation between October 1, 1987, and December 31, 2004. Recipients were divided by donor age into terciles: 0 to 19 years (n = 10,814; 32.1%), 20 to 33 years (11,410, 33.9%), and 34 years or more (11,416, 33.9%). Kaplan-Meier survival functions and Cox regression were used for time-to-event analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curves and stratum-specific likelihood ratios were generated to compare 5-year survival at various thresholds for ischemic time.
Results
In univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, the effect of ischemic time on survival varied by donor age tercile: 0 to 19 years (P = .141), 20 to 33 years (P < .001), and 34 years or more (P < .001). These relationships persisted in multivariable regression. Threshold analysis generated a single stratum (0.37-12.00 hours) in the 0- to 19-year-old group with a median survival of 11.4 years. However, in the 20- to 33-year-old-group, 3 strata were generated: 0.00 to 3.49 hours (limited), 3.50 to 6.24 hours (prolonged), and 6.25 hours or more (extended), with median survivals of 10.6, 9.9, and 7.3 years, respectively. Likewise, 3 strata were generated in the group aged 34 years or more: 0.00 to 3.49 (limited), 3.50 to 5.49 (prolonged), and 5.50 or more (extended), with median survivals of 9.1, 8.5, and 6.3 years, respectively.
Conclusions
The effect of ischemic time on survival after heart transplantation is dependent on donor age, with greater tolerance for prolonged ischemic times among grafts from younger donors. Both donor age and anticipated ischemic time must be considered when assessing a potential donor.
CTSNet classification
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Abbreviations and Acronyms
CI
confidence interval
ROC
receiver operating characteristic
SSLR
stratum-specific likelihood ratio
UNOS
United Network for Organ Sharing
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This work was supported in part by Health Resources and Services Administration contract 231-00-0115. The content is the responsibility of the authors alone and does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Department of Health and Human Services, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
