Diabetes Atlas
IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2011 and 2030

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2011.10.029Get rights and content

Abstract

Introduction

Diabetes is an increasingly important condition globally and robust estimates of its prevalence are required for allocating resources.

Methods

Data sources from 1980 to April 2011 were sought and characterised. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to select the most appropriate study or studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates which were applied to UN population estimates for 2011.

Results

A total of 565 data sources were reviewed, of which 170 sources from 110 countries were selected. In 2011 there are 366 million people with diabetes, and this is expected to rise to 552 million by 2030. Most people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries, and these countries will also see the greatest increase over the next 19 years.

Discussion

This paper builds on previous IDF estimates and shows that the global diabetes epidemic continues to grow. Recent studies show that previous estimates have been very conservative. The new IDF estimates use a simple and transparent approach and are consistent with recent estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study. IDF estimates will be updated annually.

Introduction

Diabetes mellitus is one of the most common chronic diseases in nearly all countries, and continues to increase in numbers and significance, as economic development and urbanization lead to changing lifestyles characterised by reduced physical activity, and increased obesity. Estimates of the current and future burden of diabetes are important in order to allocate community and health resources, to emphasise the role of lifestyle, and encourage measures to counteract trends for increasing prevalence.

There have been several previous estimates of the number of persons with diabetes [1], [2], [3], [4] and recently the Global Burden of Disease project published estimates for the years 1980 and 2008 using a complex multi-level approach [5]. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has routinely produced estimates of the prevalence of diabetes every 3 years from the year 2000 [6], [7], [8], [9], [10] and the estimates produced here update the IDF estimates for 216 countries and territories.

Section snippets

Study selection

Full details of the methods and assumptions are given in the accompanying paper by Guariguata and Whiting [11]. Briefly, the PubMed database and Google Scholar were searched for sources published between January 1980 and April 2011, using the search terms: (‘diabetes’ or ‘impaired glucose tolerance’) and ‘prevalence’ and (country name or region/continent); ‘cardiovascular risk factors’ and (country name or region/continent).

Studies were identified that reported on the prevalence of diabetes for

Results

A total of 565 data sources were reviewed, of which 170 sources from 110 countries were selected.

The data sources and the results for the 80 most populous countries (those with 2011 adult population of greater than 6.399 million, with a combined 2011 population of 94% of the world adult population) are shown in Table 1, Table 2. There were 70 of the 80 countries that had their own data (98 separate studies). Details of prevalence and case numbers for all 216 countries can be found in the online

Discussion

The estimates presented here are based on methods that are an evolution of the methods developed by Shaw et al. [10] and suggest that in 2011 there will be 366 million people worldwide with diabetes, with considerable disparity between populations and regions. The pattern of diabetes varies considerably according to countries’ income status. For countries classified by the World Bank as being high-income countries, most people with diabetes are aged over 60 years, whereas for low- and

Conflict of interest

There are no conflicts of interest.

Acknowledgements

The IDF Diabetes Atlas project was supported by the following sponsors: Lilly Diabetes, Merck and Co, Inc., Novo Nordisk A/S supported through an unrestricted grant by the Novo Nordisk Changing Diabetes initiative, and Sanofi.

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